Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has recently voiced concerns about the risks he faces if he pursues a normalization agreement with Israel without securing key concessions for the Palestinians. 

During discussions with US Congress members, MBS emphasized that any potential deal must include a clear path toward establishing a Palestinian state. Despite the dangers, he remains determined to move forward with the historic agreement, viewing it as critical to Saudi Arabia’s future.

MBS’s concerns stem from the historical precedent of leaders facing extreme consequences after negotiating peace with Israel. He reportedly referenced the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981 by Islamist militants following his peace agreement with Israel.

This tragic event has left a lasting impression on the crown prince, highlighting the dangers of such negotiations in the volatile Middle East. His mention of Sadat’s assassination during the talks underscores his deep anxiety about the potential backlash from radical factions within the region.

Security Assurances and Strategic Shifts

The crown prince’s fears are not just personal; they also reflect broader concerns about the stability and security of the Saudi kingdom. Establishing formal ties with Israel is a significant shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape, and it could provoke strong reactions both within Saudi Arabia and across the Muslim world.

To mitigate these risks, MBS has been in discussions about securing robust security assurances from the United States. These talks have included potential treaties and support for Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear program, along with investments in key sectors such as technology.

Despite these concerns, MBS appears committed to pursuing the agreement with Israel. This move is seen as a strategic decision to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position on the global stage. However, the negotiation process has been fraught with challenges, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue.

Reports suggest that MBS is disappointed with the Israeli government’s reluctance to offer a viable pathway to Palestinian statehood as part of the deal. This hesitation has complicated the discussions and raised doubts about the feasibility of reaching a comprehensive agreement.

Potential Consequences and Global Implications

In return for normalizing relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering limiting its interactions with China, signaling a potential shift in its foreign policy. This realignment would be significant, given Saudi Arabia’s historical ties with China, particularly in the energy sector. By forging closer ties with Israel and the US, MBS aims to secure Saudi Arabia’s future in a rapidly changing global landscape.

The crown prince’s discussions about the possibility of his assassination have raised eyebrows and added a layer of urgency to the ongoing negotiations. While the exact timing and context of these conversations remain unclear, they highlight the high stakes involved in the normalization process.

MBS’s willingness to discuss such a personal and sensitive issue publicly reflects his determination to see the deal through, despite the risks.

The potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel represents a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East. If successful, it could lead to increased cooperation between the two countries in various sectors, including technology, security, and trade.

However, the path to such an agreement is fraught with challenges, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue, which remains a central concern for MBS.

As the crown prince navigates these complex negotiations, his focus on securing concessions for the Palestinians underscores his commitment to ensuring that any deal with Israel addresses the broader regional concerns. While the threat of assassination looms large, MBS’s determination to pursue the agreement reflects his vision for Saudi Arabia’s future and his willingness to take significant risks to achieve it.

The ongoing negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel represent a critical juncture in Middle Eastern politics. The outcome of these talks could have far-reaching implications for the region’s stability and the future of the Palestinian cause. As MBS continues to move forward with the Saudi Arabian lineage and push for a comprehensive deal, the world watches closely, aware of the high stakes involved.